The recent commencement of operations at the Dangote Refinery has significantly intensified competition in Nigeria’s petroleum market, leading to notable reductions in petrol prices.
In late February 2025, Dangote Refinery reduced its ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) from ₦890 to ₦825 per litre, aiming to provide economic relief to Nigerians and support President Bola Tinubu’s economic policies.
In response, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) adjusted its pricing strategy. By early March 2025, NNPCL had reduced its petrol prices to ₦860 per litre across its stations in Lagos State, reflecting a more competitive stance in the market.
This shift signifies a departure from NNPCL’s previous pricing model, influenced by Dangote Refinery’s aggressive pricing.
The competition has also prompted structural changes within the industry. Many independent petroleum marketers are now negotiating directly with Dangote Refinery under a “willing buyer, willing seller” arrangement, moving away from traditional reliance on NNPCL.
This transition has led to rebranding of several filling stations, particularly in Lagos, to reflect new partnerships with Dangote Refinery.
However, this price competition has financial implications. Dangote Refinery anticipates a potential loss of up to ₦32.5 billion from its 500 million litres stock of PMS due to the recent price cuts.
Despite these challenges, the ongoing competition is expected to benefit consumers by making petrol more affordable and accessible across Nigeria.
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