The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) has identified the Dangote Petroleum Refinery as the key driver behind a seven-fold increase in Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product exports since 2023.
According to the latest EIA report, Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product shipments averaged 561,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of 2026, up sharply from the 79,000 bpd annual average recorded in 2023.
The agency said the surge has strengthened Nigeria’s position in the international petroleum products market, particularly at a time when supply disruptions have affected several other regions.
The EIA attributed much of the growth to the commencement of operations at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in January 2024. Data from energy intelligence firm Vortexa showed that about 350,000 bpd of the 561,000 bpd shipped in the second quarter of 2026 were exported, compared with an annual average of 46,000 bpd in 2023.
The agency said increased refinery production has transformed Nigeria’s petroleum market by reducing dependence on imported fuels while boosting domestic supply.
“With increased supply of petroleum products from the country’s largest refinery, imports fell, exports increased, and Nigeria became more self-sufficient in refined petroleum products,” the EIA stated.
The refinery’s impact became more pronounced after maintenance and expansion activities were completed in February 2026. Its crude distillation capacity subsequently increased from 650,000 bpd to 700,000 bpd, allowing for higher production and greater availability of refined products.
The EIA also reported that intra-Nigerian petroleum shipments rose to 211,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 81,000 bpd in 2025 and 33,000 bpd in 2023.
Nigeria’s reliance on imported petroleum products has also declined significantly. From nearly 400,000 bpd of imports in 2023, seaborne imports fell to less than 130,000 bpd by the second quarter of 2026.
Meanwhile, Nigerian refined petroleum products are gaining ground in international markets. Vortexa data cited by the EIA showed that exports to Europe averaged 130,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 40,000 bpd in 2025 and just 15,000 bpd in 2023.
The report further highlighted how supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz created additional demand for alternative sources of refined petroleum products, providing a further boost to Nigeria’s exports.
The development underscores the growing importance of the Dangote Refinery to Nigeria’s energy security and its emergence as a major supplier of refined petroleum products to regional and global markets.
The refinery has also announced plans to add another 700,000 bpd of fully complex refining capacity by the end of 2028. If achieved, the expansion would increase its total capacity to about 1.4 million bpd.
Dangote Refinery CEO, David Bird, said long-lead equipment had already been procured, while construction contracts were being awarded.
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